Home
Posts filed under Anti_ikhwan
إظهار الرسائل ذات التسميات Anti_ikhwan. إظهار كافة الرسائل
إظهار الرسائل ذات التسميات Anti_ikhwan. إظهار كافة الرسائل
4/03/2013
4/02/2013
Jon Stewart defends Bassem Youssef (Egypt's Jon Stewart); Destroys Pres. Morsi
أنا لا أفهم هذا الرجل .. أنت رئيس مصر.. أعظم أرض وأعظم شعب في التاريخ المدون، شعبك -سيدي الرئيس- اخترع الحضارة، حتى أن اليونانيين القدماء حين ذهبوا إلى مصر ذهلوا وقالوا: ماذا عندكم هنا؟ علم الهندسة والأساطير؟ عندما تفرغون منهما يمكننا استخدامهما، سيدي الرئيس لقد اخترع المصريون اللغة المكتوبة والورق ومعجون الأسنان، حتى إنهم دفنوا مع قططهم الأليفة، كذلك أصبح الكثيرون يقلدون الطريقة المصرية في الرقص، المصريون هم من بنوا الأهرامات.. ربما يجب عليك أن تأتي بأحد هؤلاء كي يجعل جلدك أكثر سمكاً (جلد إخوانجي تخين).. كل مافعله باسم يوسف هو السخرية من قبعتك وعدم قدرتك على الأداء الديمقراطي، ما الذي يقلقك؟ أنت رئيس مصر، ولديك جيش وأسلحة ودبابات وطائرات، ونحن نعلم ذلك لأن مازال لدينا الفواتير، انصت لي جيدا، محاولة إسكات كوميديان لن تؤهلك كي تصبح رئيس مصر، دعني أقول لك شيئا: مالذي يقلقك سيدي الرئيس؟ خوفك من قوة النقد الساخر على هيبتك؟ انظر إلى.. هذا ما أفعله في الـ 15 عام الماضيين، أنا أعرف باسم شخصيا، وهو صديقي وأخي، وإن كان هناك شيئان يحبهما باسم جدا فهما مصر والإسلام
3/25/2013
Activists
Anti_ikhwan
black block
Documentary
egypt
Egyptian X-Files
Ikhwan
Ikhwankazeboon
morsi
video
violence
جمعه الكرامه امام المقطم #الاخوان #مرسى #مصر #Ikhwankazeboon
تبدأ الحكاية بعد أن إتهمت بعض القوى الثورية وبعض النشطاء
السياسيين جماعة الإخوان المسلمين وشبابها بالتعدى عليهم أمام مكتب الإرشاد
وتباينت القصص والروايات حول لماذا تم افعتداء فالبعض يقول أن الإخوان أرداوا الإنتقام من خسارة إنتخابات نقابة الصحافة مع أن الإخوان لم يكن لهم
مرشح مباشر فى هذه الإنتخابات ولم يعلن الإخوان المسلمين عن وجود مرشحين
لهم فى هذه الإنتخابات وبالرغم من ذلك قالوا أن الإخوان المسلمين خسروا
انتخابات نقابة الصحفيين كذلك قال البعض أن الصحفيين تواجدوا هناك لتغطية
تواجد خالد مشعل فى مكتب الإرشاد ولقاؤه بالمرشد بالرغم انه لم يتم الإعلان
عن ذلك ولم تصدر أى جهة تابعة للإخوان عن وجود خالد مشعل أو عن وجود لقاء
بينه وبين المرشد داخل المقر بينما رد الإخوان على هذه الإتهامات من
ناحيتهم عندما اكدوا أن النشطاء السياسيين تواجدوا امام المقر وقاموا بالسب
للإخوان والمرشد كما قاموا بكتابة عبارات مسيئة ومهينة للإخوان والمرشد
وحاولوا رسم بعض الرسومات او الجرافيتى كما يُطلق عليها فما كان من شباب
الإخوان إلا انهم خرجوا لهم وإعتدوا عليهم وبين تلك الروايات وتلك وبين
ضياع الحقيقة بين كلام هؤلاء وأولئك يبقى سؤال إستخدمه معارضى الإخوان فيما
سبق ردا على أحداث قصر الإتحادية رددها كل المعارضين وكل القنوات الفضائية
والصحف المعروفة بمهاجمة الإخوان وكان السؤال هو ..لماذ ذهب الإخوان أمام
قصر الإتحادية ؟؟؟ ..فهل يمكن توجيه هذا السؤال الآن للنشطاء السياسيين وهل
يمكن القول لماذا ذهب المعارضين والنشطاء أمام مقر الإخوان بالمقطم ؟؟
ولكن سوف نجد من يقول انهم تواجدوا فى مكان عام فى الشارع ولا يمكن أحد
منعهم ولكن الرد سوف يكون بنفس الطريقة الإخوان هم أيضا عندما ذهبوا لقصر الإتحادية توجدوا أمام مكان عام من حقهم التواجد فيه سوف يقول البعض الآخر
الإخوان ذهبوا أمام قصر الإتحادية وهم يعرفون أن المعارضة متواجدة هناك
فسوف يكون الرد أيضا وهل عندما ذهب النشطاء أمام مقر الإخوان كانوا يتوقعون
أن الإخوان لن يتواجدوا فى مقرهم ومن من الممكن التواجد داخل مقر الإخوان
أو أمامه هل يمكن أن يتواجد المعارضين ؟؟
وبعد الأحداث السابق ذكرها دعت بعض القوى الثورية والعديد من النشطاء السياسيين للتظاهر امام مكتب الإرشاد بالمقطم ردا على ماحدث لهم من شباب الإخوان وبالفعل حدث ذلك أمام المكتب أمس ولكن شهد التواجد الذى دائما مايصفه الإعلام بالسلمى بالرغم ما يخلفه من حرائق وحالات تخريب وإصابات نفس ما يشهده دائما تواجد المعارضة فى أى مكان إعتداءات ومولوتوف وحرائق وإصابات بالجملة وأحداث أمس طرحت العديد من الأسئلة كانت تحتاج إلى إجابات ورددها العديد من الإعلاميين وهى
(1) هل بعد إحتراق مقرات الإخوان والإعتداء على مقر الإرشاد بالمقطم وسحل وحرق بعض أفرادهم أمس هل بعد كل ذلك مازال البعض يعتقد انهم يمتلكون ميلشيات مسلحة؟؟
(2) هل من كانوا يرددون ان الإخوان هم من قاموا بموقعة الجمل وهم من قاموا بأحداث بورسعيد وهم من يغتصبون ويتحرشون وكل ماسبق من أفعال إجرامية مازالوا يعتقدون ذلك ؟ وهل لو كان الإخوان يستأجرون بلطجية ليفعلوا ذلك لماذا لم يستأجروا نفس البلطجية للدفاع عنهم امس ؟؟
ونحن هنا نقدم لكم مجموعة من الفيديوهات التى توثق وتوضح كل ماتم من احداث أمس امام مكتب الإرشاد بالمقطم
وبعد الأحداث السابق ذكرها دعت بعض القوى الثورية والعديد من النشطاء السياسيين للتظاهر امام مكتب الإرشاد بالمقطم ردا على ماحدث لهم من شباب الإخوان وبالفعل حدث ذلك أمام المكتب أمس ولكن شهد التواجد الذى دائما مايصفه الإعلام بالسلمى بالرغم ما يخلفه من حرائق وحالات تخريب وإصابات نفس ما يشهده دائما تواجد المعارضة فى أى مكان إعتداءات ومولوتوف وحرائق وإصابات بالجملة وأحداث أمس طرحت العديد من الأسئلة كانت تحتاج إلى إجابات ورددها العديد من الإعلاميين وهى
(1) هل بعد إحتراق مقرات الإخوان والإعتداء على مقر الإرشاد بالمقطم وسحل وحرق بعض أفرادهم أمس هل بعد كل ذلك مازال البعض يعتقد انهم يمتلكون ميلشيات مسلحة؟؟
(2) هل من كانوا يرددون ان الإخوان هم من قاموا بموقعة الجمل وهم من قاموا بأحداث بورسعيد وهم من يغتصبون ويتحرشون وكل ماسبق من أفعال إجرامية مازالوا يعتقدون ذلك ؟ وهل لو كان الإخوان يستأجرون بلطجية ليفعلوا ذلك لماذا لم يستأجروا نفس البلطجية للدفاع عنهم امس ؟؟
ونحن هنا نقدم لكم مجموعة من الفيديوهات التى توثق وتوضح كل ماتم من احداث أمس امام مكتب الإرشاد بالمقطم
234 مصاباً في جمعة رد الكرامة والنيابة تحقق في دعوات التظاهر أمام مقر "الإخوان"
حبس 6 شباب فى جمعة «رد الكرامة» أمام مكتب الإرشاد بالمقطم.. والمتهمون يتهمون الشرطة بسحلهم http://ow.ly/2vHYRw
القوى السياسية تجدد دعوتها للمشاركة في جمعة «رد الكرامة» أمام «الإرشاد»
«الوطن» تنشر شهادات معتقلى «سلخانة المقطم الإخوانية»
فيديو لاشتباكات جمعة رد الكرامة
تابع تغطية خاصة بالفيديو.. لاشتباكات المتظاهرين والإخوان أمام مقر الإرشاد بالمقطم
بالصور.. خالد علي يحمي مصابي الإخوان خلال اشتباكات المقطم
11 فيديو لاشتباكات جمعة رد الكرامة
تابع تغطية خاصة بالفيديو.. لاشتباكات المتظاهرين والإخوان أمام مقر الإرشاد بالمقطم
http://files.elwatannews.com/video_49
تابع تغطية خاصة بالفيديو.. لاشتباكات المتظاهرين والإخوان أمام مقر الإرشاد بالمقطم
http://files.elwatannews.com/video_49
بالصور.. النيران تشتعل في أحد شباب «الإخوان» خلال اشتباكات «مكتب الإرشاد» http://ow.ly/jkqQo
3/09/2013
3/06/2013
Amnesty
Anti_ikhwan
blog
book
Citizen Journalism
egypt
Egyptian X-Files
Ikhwan
Ikhwankazeboon
OccupyEgypt
qatar
tahrir
Egypt book blasts Brotherhood, becomes best-seller
#Egypt Egyptian book blasts Muslim Brotherhood and becomes a best-seller
An Egyptian
lawyer whose dissenting voice got him thrown out of the Muslim
Brotherhood examines what he calls the group's hidden radicalism in a
book that has become a best-seller in Cairo.
Tharwat al-Khirbawy's "Secret of the Temple" has been dismissed by Brotherhood leaders as part of a smear campaign.
Tharwat al-Khirbawy's "Secret of the Temple" has been dismissed by Brotherhood leaders as part of a smear campaign.
But
its success points to a deep mistrust harboured by some Egyptians
towards a once-outlawed movement that has moved to the heart of power
since Hosni Mubarak was toppled and its candidate secured the
presidency.
In its 12th print run since November, the book is being sold in upmarket shops and on street corners, pointing to a thirst for information about a group whose inner workings remain a mystery months after President Mohamed Mursi came to power.
Expelled from the group a decade ago, Khirbawy says he aims to expose dictatorship and extremism inside the Brotherhood. In the process, he has joined a media war being waged to shape views in Egypt's deeply polarised political landscape.
Asked to comment on the book, one senior Muslim Brotherhood leader dismissed its content as "fallacies". Another said that to comment on such a book would be a waste of time.
"I want to make all people know the reality about the Brotherhood," Khirbawy said in an interview with Reuters.
Khirbawy sees the way he was kicked out of the Brotherhood as an illustration of the group's authoritarian streak.
He was disciplined in 2001 at a "Brotherhood court" for publishing three articles that criticised the group for not engaging with other opposition parties - a criticism still levelled at the Brotherhood today. "The Brotherhood does not know the virtue of differences of opinion," he said.
Demonised for decades by Egypt's military-backed autocracy, the Brotherhood sees such attacks as propaganda concocted by opponents who have struggled to get organised and carve out their place in the new order.
But Khirbawy's arguments resonate among those Egyptians who believe the Brotherhood aims to subvert new freedoms for their own ends to set up a new Islamist autocracy - a view hardened late last year when Mursi unilaterally expanded his powers.
MURSI DEFENDS QUTB
Khirbawy has been extensively interviewed by independent Egyptian media that are broadly critical of the Brotherhood.
In his book, he explores the ideology of Mursi and the small group of leaders at the top of the movement, examining their devotion to Sayyid Qutb, a radical ideologue executed in 1966 for plotting to kill president Gamal Abdel Nasser.
Qutb, a Brotherhood leader, formulated some of the most radical ideas in political Islam. These included the idea that modern-day Muslim societies were living in a pre-Islamic state of ignorance. His most radical work, written while he was in prison, advocated violence to bring about change.
Mursi is on the record as defending Qutb as a thinker "who liberates the mind and touches the heart". In a 2009 talk show appearance posted on YouTube last year, Mursi said Qutb "finds the real vision of Islam that we are looking for".
Among Brotherhood watchers, it is no secret that the Brotherhood's current leadership were heavily influenced by Qutb, who also wrote more broadly on Islam.
But "trying to give the impression that Mursi is a Qutbist is an exaggeration" said Khalil al-Anani, an expert on Islamist movements. "Yes they are influenced by him in terms of the purity of ideas, but not in terms of believing in violence or judging people as non-believers," he said.
Brotherhood spokesman Ahmed Aref said the movement, like all groups, had rules that must be respected, adding that it was not the first time a member had left over the years and spoken out. "The difference this time is the media," he said.
A well-oiled campaign machine and grass-roots support base helped the Brotherhood sweep the first post-Mubarak parliamentary vote at the end of 2011, but the assembly was disbanded in June when Egypt's highest court declared the election rules unconstitutional.
Suspicion that the Brotherhood plans to dominate Egypt means the group may find it harder to win votes as fresh parliamentary elections near.
"They don't have people who can explain themselves in a good way, particularly those who talk to the Egyptian public," said Anani. "There is a huge gap of mistrust."
(Writing by Tom Perry; Editing by Tom Pfeiffer)
In its 12th print run since November, the book is being sold in upmarket shops and on street corners, pointing to a thirst for information about a group whose inner workings remain a mystery months after President Mohamed Mursi came to power.
Expelled from the group a decade ago, Khirbawy says he aims to expose dictatorship and extremism inside the Brotherhood. In the process, he has joined a media war being waged to shape views in Egypt's deeply polarised political landscape.
Asked to comment on the book, one senior Muslim Brotherhood leader dismissed its content as "fallacies". Another said that to comment on such a book would be a waste of time.
"I want to make all people know the reality about the Brotherhood," Khirbawy said in an interview with Reuters.
Khirbawy sees the way he was kicked out of the Brotherhood as an illustration of the group's authoritarian streak.
He was disciplined in 2001 at a "Brotherhood court" for publishing three articles that criticised the group for not engaging with other opposition parties - a criticism still levelled at the Brotherhood today. "The Brotherhood does not know the virtue of differences of opinion," he said.
Demonised for decades by Egypt's military-backed autocracy, the Brotherhood sees such attacks as propaganda concocted by opponents who have struggled to get organised and carve out their place in the new order.
But Khirbawy's arguments resonate among those Egyptians who believe the Brotherhood aims to subvert new freedoms for their own ends to set up a new Islamist autocracy - a view hardened late last year when Mursi unilaterally expanded his powers.
MURSI DEFENDS QUTB
Khirbawy has been extensively interviewed by independent Egyptian media that are broadly critical of the Brotherhood.
In his book, he explores the ideology of Mursi and the small group of leaders at the top of the movement, examining their devotion to Sayyid Qutb, a radical ideologue executed in 1966 for plotting to kill president Gamal Abdel Nasser.
Qutb, a Brotherhood leader, formulated some of the most radical ideas in political Islam. These included the idea that modern-day Muslim societies were living in a pre-Islamic state of ignorance. His most radical work, written while he was in prison, advocated violence to bring about change.
Mursi is on the record as defending Qutb as a thinker "who liberates the mind and touches the heart". In a 2009 talk show appearance posted on YouTube last year, Mursi said Qutb "finds the real vision of Islam that we are looking for".
Among Brotherhood watchers, it is no secret that the Brotherhood's current leadership were heavily influenced by Qutb, who also wrote more broadly on Islam.
But "trying to give the impression that Mursi is a Qutbist is an exaggeration" said Khalil al-Anani, an expert on Islamist movements. "Yes they are influenced by him in terms of the purity of ideas, but not in terms of believing in violence or judging people as non-believers," he said.
Brotherhood spokesman Ahmed Aref said the movement, like all groups, had rules that must be respected, adding that it was not the first time a member had left over the years and spoken out. "The difference this time is the media," he said.
A well-oiled campaign machine and grass-roots support base helped the Brotherhood sweep the first post-Mubarak parliamentary vote at the end of 2011, but the assembly was disbanded in June when Egypt's highest court declared the election rules unconstitutional.
Suspicion that the Brotherhood plans to dominate Egypt means the group may find it harder to win votes as fresh parliamentary elections near.
"They don't have people who can explain themselves in a good way, particularly those who talk to the Egyptian public," said Anani. "There is a huge gap of mistrust."
(Writing by Tom Perry; Editing by Tom Pfeiffer)
2/13/2013
The new #Egypt at (almost) #Morsi
On January 25,
thousands of Egyptians will gather in Tahrir Square and across Egypt to commemorate
the uprising that toppled the Hosni Mubarak dictatorship. They will celebrate
with good reason. When Mubarak, pressured by millions in the streets and
ultimately betrayed by his own top generals, resigned on February 11, 2011, a
military-backed dictatorship that had ruled and largely abused Egypt for more
than half a century came to an end. Most Egyptians were euphoric, and the world
was transfixed by the unexpected power of the Tahrir Square freedom movement.
However, in
the two years since, the transition remains fragile, and Egypt's politics
remain dangerously polarized. In fact, in addition to celebration, there may
also be clashes on January 25. Today Egypt has an elected president, a new constitution,
and will soon hold parliamentary elections. But if Egypt has made halting steps
toward democracy, worrying signs of illiberalism and poor governance are increasingly
apparent. The outcome of the revolution in the Arab world's most populous
country remains uncertain, and the threat of violence looms large.
To
understand where Egypt's revolution might go from here, it is useful to take a sober
accounting of the key lessons that we have learned over the past two years, and
to debunk some myths that stubbornly took root during that time.
The Muslim Brotherhood are not
democrats. Despite some prominent Western journalists and analysts'
continued wishful thinking to the contrary, the Muslim Brotherhood -- a secretive,
rigorously disciplined and hierarchical organization -- neither understands nor
sees inherent value in democratic politics. Rather, the Muslim Brotherhood
believes in a narrow majoritarianism and its leaders and supporters often confuse
that with democracy. The Brotherhood believes that 50 percent + 1 equals a free
hand to pursue its agenda. And its agenda is manifestly an illiberal one in
which universal rights are subordinated to religious doctrine.
The manner in which Egypt's new constitution was conceived, written, and
adopted offers the clearest example of the Brotherhood's authoritarian and
majoritarian tendencies. A post-authoritarian state should adopt a consensus
document, but the current constitution was rammed through despite the staunch
objections of non-Islamists. Rather than guaranteeing protections for
minorities and women, the constitution leaves a troublingly broad scope for
violation of their human rights. Looking ahead, as the Brotherhood embarks upon
a legislative agenda, expect laws that will seek to limit media freedoms and constrain
freedom of assembly.
The military remains very powerful. In
November 2011, Egypt's Islamists, which had for months worked closely with the
Mubarak appointed military leadership, protested the proposed "Selmi document"
which was designed to ensure the military's privileges in any new constitution.
However, after President Mohamed Morsi was elected in June 2012 and dismissed
the two top Mubarak era generals in August, Egypt's Islamist dominated
constituent assembly crafted a constitution that explicitly guarantees the
military's power and privileges. The Islamists learned that trying to bring the
military under civilian control was a dangerous task, and the two entities now
have a more collaborative relationship. This gives some of Egypt's
non-Islamists, who erroneously believed that the military represents the last
line of defense against Islamists, migraines. But the more salient factor is
that a military not under direct civilian oversight is simply bad for nurturing
a fledgling democracy.
Sectarianism in Egypt is alive and well.
Attacks on Egyptian Christians were not uncommon in Mubarak's time -- on New
Year's Day in 2011, three and a half weeks before the uprising, a church in
Alexandria was bombed, killing 21 worshipers. But Christians have thus far fared
even worse in post-revolution Egypt. Churches have been burned, Christians have
been attacked and prevented from voting, a Christian man's ear was even cut off
-- and few perpetrators have been arrested, fostering a culture of impunity. In
fact, Christian victims are often blamed for being attacked. In October 2011, for
example, the military attacked a group of Christian protesters, killing 27, and
as the melee was taking place, a state TV presenter requested that "honorable
citizens" report to the scene to protect the soldiers from the marauding
Christians.
Now with Islamists politically ascendant, hardline influential Muslim clerics have ratcheted up their sectarian invective against Christians. They are emboldened by the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood and their Salafi extremist junior partners believe in the primacy of Islamic principles over equal citizenship. While the Brotherhood, to appease Western skeptics, has issued various blandishments about its commitment to "equality," its leaders will stand by idly as more hardline Islamists spew ugly and dangerous rhetoric about Christians. Egyptians Christians should be concerned. Even if legislation is not overtly prejudiced, the views of Egypt's leaders will increasingly permeate the country, fanning existing anti-Christian biases.
Now with Islamists politically ascendant, hardline influential Muslim clerics have ratcheted up their sectarian invective against Christians. They are emboldened by the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood and their Salafi extremist junior partners believe in the primacy of Islamic principles over equal citizenship. While the Brotherhood, to appease Western skeptics, has issued various blandishments about its commitment to "equality," its leaders will stand by idly as more hardline Islamists spew ugly and dangerous rhetoric about Christians. Egyptians Christians should be concerned. Even if legislation is not overtly prejudiced, the views of Egypt's leaders will increasingly permeate the country, fanning existing anti-Christian biases.
The progressive "Muslim Brotherhood
youth" is a myth. In the years leading up to the Egyptian uprising, there
was a prevalent belief that the younger members of the Muslim Brotherhood would
exert a moderating influence on the Muslim Brotherhood, especially if the
movement was granted legal recognition. Many young Islamists are indeed more
moderate, revolutionary, and yes more liberal, than the leadership. However,
these more progressive, democratic young Brothers are outnumbered by adherents
of similar age who remain committed to conservatism. As a result, the "young
brothers" have not had the moderating influence that was expected.
The more
impressive progressive Brothers, like Ibrahim El Houdaiby, have left the
Brotherhood and started their own small political parties, or joined forces
with more established, popular, moderate former members like Abdel Moniem Aboul
Fotouh. Their defections have only reinforced the orthodox conservatism and
authoritarian nature of the movement. On November 22, 2012, when Morsi declared
himself above legal challenges, the Brotherhood ordered its younger members to
gather in support of the president's statement, even before the content of that
statement was known. The young Brothers actually had no idea what Morsi was
going to say. They just knew that they would agree with it.
The silent majority remains the most potentially potent force in Egypt. To be sure, the Brotherhood is currently the most powerful and organized political force in the country. It can count on a bloc of between five and 10 million voters. And these voters have delivered victory after victory over the last 22 months in referenda as well as parliamentary and presidential elections. In fact, it is likely that Islamists will win the upcoming parliamentary elections. However, Egypt has more than 50 million voters. The biggest bloc is the unaffiliated -- either because they don't care, don't know enough about politics, or are disillusioned. For example, only 11 million voters approved the Islamist crafted constitution. This of course does not mean that the other 39 million voters reject it, but if the Brotherhood can only get one fifth of voters to make their way to a polling station to register their approval of such an important document, it means they can be beaten.
The prevalence of undecided potential voters means that Egypt's divided non-Islamists could make electoral progress if they successfully appeal to new voters beyond their own bloc of five to six million, mostly urban supporters. However, to date, Egypt's non-Islamist movement remains incoherent. Thus far, their strategy has been to be the party of "no" and to try to pressure authorities through street protests. This will not work. Non-Islamists can certainly win Egyptian elections, but they have to work twice as hard. They have yet to hone an appealing message, focused on the economy, for example, that would attract voters in places like Upper Egypt or other rural parts of the country, where they are particularly weak.
The silent majority remains the most potentially potent force in Egypt. To be sure, the Brotherhood is currently the most powerful and organized political force in the country. It can count on a bloc of between five and 10 million voters. And these voters have delivered victory after victory over the last 22 months in referenda as well as parliamentary and presidential elections. In fact, it is likely that Islamists will win the upcoming parliamentary elections. However, Egypt has more than 50 million voters. The biggest bloc is the unaffiliated -- either because they don't care, don't know enough about politics, or are disillusioned. For example, only 11 million voters approved the Islamist crafted constitution. This of course does not mean that the other 39 million voters reject it, but if the Brotherhood can only get one fifth of voters to make their way to a polling station to register their approval of such an important document, it means they can be beaten.
The prevalence of undecided potential voters means that Egypt's divided non-Islamists could make electoral progress if they successfully appeal to new voters beyond their own bloc of five to six million, mostly urban supporters. However, to date, Egypt's non-Islamist movement remains incoherent. Thus far, their strategy has been to be the party of "no" and to try to pressure authorities through street protests. This will not work. Non-Islamists can certainly win Egyptian elections, but they have to work twice as hard. They have yet to hone an appealing message, focused on the economy, for example, that would attract voters in places like Upper Egypt or other rural parts of the country, where they are particularly weak.
Authorities are adrift on the economy. There
was a strong economic component to the January 25 uprising. Egypt's economy,
like those of many other non-oil Arab states, grew under Mubarak in the last
few years of his rule, but that growth did little for the poor. As recently as
last fall, the Muslim Brotherhood was heralded as "serious" about economic
reform. Given Egypt's deep economic problems -- growth is anemic, the pound is
losing value, structural limitations to growth abound -- this should have been
the government's primary focus. Instead, the Muslim Brotherhood used its
political capital to ram through a constitution and then found it had little
leverage to push through some needed but difficult economic reforms.
Of course, if
the Brotherhood had pursued political consensus, it might have been better
positioned to carry out needed reforms -- for example, on taxation and
subsidies. In addition, were there less polarization and political upheaval,
tourism receipts could well be higher and foreign and domestic investors less
skittish. But the Muslim Brotherhood gambled that it was more important to
cement its political agenda. For a time, Egypt's regional importance will
continue to attract aid -- from the IMF, the United States and, increasingly
from the Gulf -- but room for maneuver on crucial reforms is now much more
limited.
Sinai is a serious security problem. Sinai
is becoming increasingly lawless and poses a potential threat to Egyptian
security and the economy. Since Mubarak's ouster, the gas pipeline in Sinai has
been attacked more than a dozen times. In August 2012, the border police were
attacked and 16 officers were killed, leading to a major shakeup of the security
and military leadership. It is also disturbing that it appears difficult to get
solid information about what is actually happening in Sinai -- who the Sinai
militants are and what are their goals. However, their actions can carry
serious consequences. A single devastating terrorist attack on tourists from
Sinai-based groups could deal a further blow to Egypt's ailing economy.
Despite all
the challenges that post-uprising Egypt faces, Egyptian politics are more alive
than they have been in decades, and Egyptian democracy and pluralism are still
good long term bets. Entrenched interests and many newly empowered political
forces are change resistant -- but it is very unlikely that Egypt will return
to the kind of "stable" authoritarianism of Mubarak. While they are a small
minority, the core group of revolutionary activists agitating for democracy
remains indefatigable. Egypt will probably experience a very bumpy few years,
but these activists will keep pushing those in power to move toward a more
democratic Egypt. Egypt has changed.
الاشتراك في:
الرسائل (Atom)