Now Saleh is gone, will North and South Yemen separate?
Baraa Shiban
The risks that threaten the Yemeni Unity as it enters
its twenty-three years seems to be huge, while some forces in the South
are seeking to secede and the army is seeking to drive out Al-Qaeda
militias from the areas they control in the South, Al-Houthi rebels have
Sa’ada province under control and some other areas in the North.
The celebration of the Unity anniversary last Tuesday came after a
violent attack that killed one hundred soldiers and wounded more than
220, who were participating in a military parade on the occasion of the
Unity anniversary.
The exception in the celebrations of this year is that the two
presidents who signed the Unity agreement are no longer in power. The
ousted president Ali Abdullah Saleh, was forced to leave according to a
political initiative sponsored by the Gulf Countries and the UN Security
Council after the break out of a popular revolution, and his former
deputy Ali Salem Al-Beedh who had to leave the country after the war of
1994.
Calls for Secession:
The most important challenge facing the Yemeni unity, is the high
tone of secession raised by some Southern parts, especially that some of
these forces are trending to violent methods instead of the peaceful
methods.
In addition to that, some components of the Southern Movement,
believe that they should take advantage of the success of the youth
revolution in overthrowing Saleh’s regime, to push toward secession as
the only alternative for solving the Southern issue.
Mr. Ahmed Abdul-Gani – the Head of Al-Jazeera Center for Strategic
Studies – said that the negative role played by the former regime gave
the opportunity for many projects to appear like Al-Qaeda, the Houthis,
and the Southern Movement who are calling for separation.
He also said that there is a hope for the failure of such projects,
if the Yemeni president Abdo Rabbo Mansoor Hadi and the reconciliation
government speed up in facing the economical challenges, reduce the
people’s suffering and provide the basic services such as electricity,
and water.
Security Challenges:
Mr. Abdul-Gani also pointed out that “the security challenge of
fighting Al-Qaeda militias and ending their control in some areas
Southern the country is an important issue, as well as the start of
restructuring the army under the leadership of the Ministry of Defense,
and restructuring the security forces under the leadership of the
Ministry of Interior, emphasizing that it will help to overcome the
political challenges in the country.”
The success of the coming National Dialogue will be the main
guarantee for maintaining the unity, because the most important outputs
of the dialogue will be agreeing on the constitution and the shape of
the regime.
The International and Regional Community seems to be supporting the
unity and stability of Yemen, but the details of this unity will be a
matter of huge argument during the National Dialogue.
Furthermore, the Minister of State – Ezzy Shaif – said that “what we
see and hear of projects of secession is a political game that only
serves the interests of some outside forces, and take advantage of some
mistakes occurred by some policy makers.”
He added that “Al-Qaeda in Yemen, is an international issue not just a
local issue, and perhaps they found in Yemen the atmosphere to spread
because of the economic situation and the spread of poverty and
unemployment.”
He also said that what Al-Houthi group and most of the Southern
Movement are demanding for the National Dialogue is in total within the
national unity of Yemen, and stressed that most of the Yemeni people are
supportive to the Yemeni unity, even if they disagreed on the shape of
the political system of the country.